申万宏源王胜：我们正站在中国资产长线上涨的前夜

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing impact of the U.S.-China trade dispute, particularly the significant increase in tariffs, and questions the validity of the previously discussed revaluation logic for Chinese assets in light of these developments [1][5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of increased tariffs, global financial markets experienced a sharp decline, with the U.S. stock market losing over $6 trillion and the Hong Kong stock market erasing all gains for the year [1]. - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, surged to 60 points, nearing levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis [2][3]. Chinese Market Outlook - Despite the trade tensions, there is a belief that the Chinese market can provide certainty to global investors, supported by government measures such as interest rate cuts and increased state investment in the stock market [5]. - Factors supporting the A-share market include stabilizing housing prices in major cities, progressive fiscal policies, and government initiatives to reduce competition among businesses [5][8]. Economic and Policy Factors - The gradual recovery of housing prices is expected to improve risk appetite among investors, while increased fiscal deficits will support macroeconomic recovery [8]. - The emergence of AI applications is anticipated to enhance productivity and create new demand, positioning private enterprises favorably in China's economic transformation [6][8]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to be patient and focus on valuation as a protective measure during periods of uncertainty [6][18]. - The shift from a financing market to an investment market in China is highlighted, with a significant increase in dividend payouts expected to attract long-term capital [19]. Future Market Dynamics - The article suggests that the current market volatility may lead to a reallocation of household savings into the stock market, similar to trends observed in previous bull markets [14][18]. - The potential for a long-term bull market is supported by the belief that the Chinese economy is on the verge of significant advancements, particularly in technology and manufacturing [10][12]. External Influences - The article notes that external factors, such as the U.S. trade policies and global economic conditions, will continue to influence the Chinese market, but the resilience of the Chinese supply chain is emphasized [6][10]. - The role of foreign capital is also discussed, with passive funds showing interest in Chinese stocks despite active funds withdrawing, indicating a complex sentiment towards the market [20].