独家洞察 | 特朗普关税新政引发全球市场震荡，美经济衰退风险骤升

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the new tariff policy announced by President Trump, which includes a 10% baseline tariff on all countries and higher personalized tariffs on specific trade partners, aiming to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and reshape the global economic order [1][3]. Tariff Policy Details - The new tariff policy includes a 10% baseline tariff effective from April 5, 2023, and personalized tariffs that will take effect on April 9, 2023. Countries like China will face a 34% tariff, while others such as the EU, Vietnam, and Japan will see tariffs ranging from 20% to 49% [1][3]. - The policy is expected to have far-reaching effects on global trade, potentially increasing inflation and slowing economic growth in the U.S. [3]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, global markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.84% on April 3 and an additional 5.97% on April 4, marking a total decline of 10% over two days [4]. - The Hang Seng Index fell by 13.2%, marking its largest single-day drop since October 1997, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 7.34% [5]. Economic Outlook - The risk of a U.S. economic recession has increased, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of recession within the next 12 months from 35% to 45% and predicting a GDP growth of only 0.5% by Q4 2025 [6]. - Morgan Stanley is even more pessimistic, estimating a 60% chance of recession starting in June 2023 [6]. Expert Opinions - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers criticized the tariff policy as potentially the "largest suicidal policy in U.S. history," highlighting the increased uncertainty and risk of recession [7].