达里奥：大家都盯着关税，却没人看到大崩溃已经开始

Core Viewpoint - The current global monetary, political, and geopolitical order is experiencing a classic collapse, which occurs roughly once in a lifetime and has historical precedents [2][16]. Group 1: Monetary and Economic Order - The monetary and economic order is collapsing due to excessive existing debt and the unsustainable speed of debt accumulation, which the current capital markets and economy rely on [3][7]. - There are significant imbalances between debtors (e.g., the U.S.) and creditors (e.g., China), leading to immense pressure that necessitates correction, which will fundamentally alter the monetary order [3][5]. - The deterioration of U.S. manufacturing exacerbates these unsustainable conditions, impacting middle-class job opportunities and increasing reliance on imports from countries perceived as adversaries [6][7]. Group 2: Domestic Political Order - The domestic political order is collapsing due to vast disparities in education, opportunity, productivity, income, wealth, and values, which the current political system fails to address effectively [8]. - This situation results in intense struggles between right-wing and left-wing populists for power, undermining democratic institutions that rely on compromise and rule of law [8]. Group 3: International Geopolitical Order - The era of a dominant power (the U.S.) dictating the order for other nations is ending, with the U.S.-led multilateral cooperation being replaced by a unilateral, power-driven approach [9][10]. - The U.S. is shifting towards an "America First" strategy, evident in trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and technological competition [10]. Group 4: Interconnected Forces - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the interrelationships among five major forces: monetary/market order, domestic political order, international geopolitical order, climate issues, and technological development [12][13]. - The actions taken in one area, such as tariffs, can have far-reaching impacts on other areas, including economic stability, political support, and international relations [13]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Implications - The current events are a contemporary version of historical occurrences, suggesting that policymakers should study past actions taken during similar situations to anticipate future developments [14][15]. - The collapse of monetary, political, and geopolitical orders often leads to significant upheavals, such as depressions and wars, followed by the establishment of new orders [16].