热点聚焦 | 刘伟等：2025年中国经济形势展望与政策预期

Core Viewpoint - The article forecasts that China's economy will face a dual contraction in supply and demand in 2025, with demand contraction expected to be greater than supply contraction, leading to overall economic performance remaining below potential levels [2][4][34]. Economic Review of 2024 - China's GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 5.0%, successfully meeting the annual target, but showing a decline from 2023 [5][4]. - The total GDP for 2024 is estimated at 13,490.84 billion RMB, with quarterly growth rates fluctuating throughout the year [5]. - Effective demand remains insufficient, significantly impacting GDP growth, with consumption and investment both showing signs of weakness [5][9]. Supply Side Analysis - Industrial output in 2024 is expected to grow by 5.8%, indicating a recovery in the industrial economy, with variations across different types of enterprises and regions [6][7]. - High-tech industries are identified as key growth points for future industrial development [7]. Demand Side Analysis - Social retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, reflecting a decline in consumer spending compared to previous years [8]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to increase by 3.2%, but with a downward trend throughout the year, particularly in real estate, which is projected to decline by 10.6% [9][10]. Price Trends - The inflation rate is expected to remain low, with CPI growth at 0.2% and PPI at -2.2%, indicating ongoing demand insufficiency [10][11]. Monetary and Financial Conditions - New RMB loans are projected to decrease significantly, with a total of 18.09 trillion RMB in new loans, reflecting a 20.46% decline from 2023 [12][13]. - M2 growth is expected at 7.3%, indicating a stable but low level of liquidity in the market [13]. Factors Influencing 2025 Economic Outlook - Population decline and aging are expected to exacerbate labor shortages and economic growth challenges [15]. - Weak market expectations and ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in U.S.-China relations, are anticipated to hinder economic recovery [16][20][22]. Natural Economic Trends for 2025 - Consumption is expected to show a slight increase, driven by policy support and consumer demand for upgrades [23]. - Investment growth is projected to stabilize, influenced by prior policy effects and ongoing structural adjustments [25]. - Export and import totals are expected to rise, although geopolitical tensions may pose challenges [26]. Supply Side Trends - The potential growth rate is likely to decline due to demographic changes, technological restrictions, and fluctuating energy prices [27]. - Labor force participation is expected to decrease, further impacting economic output [28]. Summary of Economic Challenges - The economy is projected to face dual contractions in supply and demand, with GDP growth potentially declining compared to 2024 [34]. - Key risks include real estate market instability, local government debt issues, and international geopolitical tensions [35][36][40]. Policy Outlook for 2025 - The GDP growth target is set around 5.0%, with CPI growth aimed at approximately 3% [42][43]. - Employment pressures are expected to increase, with a target of over 12 million new urban jobs [44]. - A combination of demand and supply management policies will be implemented to stimulate economic growth [46].