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年度分红预测开启,各期指主力合约均深度贴水【股指分红监控】
量化藏经阁·2025-04-10 13:38

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is to analyze the dividend progress of constituent stocks in various indices and the implications for index futures pricing [1][2][3] - As of April 10, 2025, the dividend progress for the Shanghai 50 Index shows 30 companies in the proposal stage, 2 in the decision stage, and none in the implementation stage, with 4 companies not paying dividends [1][3] - The CSI 300 Index has 139 companies in the proposal stage, 8 in the decision stage, 3 in the implementation stage, 2 that have paid dividends, and 28 that will not pay dividends [1][3] - The CSI 500 Index has 138 companies in the proposal stage, 5 in the decision stage, 2 that have paid dividends, and 92 that will not pay dividends [1][8] - The CSI 1000 Index has 244 companies in the proposal stage, 16 in the decision stage, 4 in the implementation stage, and 224 that will not pay dividends [1][8] Group 2 - The article provides a comparison of dividend yields across industries, highlighting that coal, banking, and steel sectors rank the highest in dividend yield [4] - As of April 10, 2025, the realized dividend yields for various indices are as follows: Shanghai 50 Index at 0.00% with a remaining yield of 2.51%, CSI 300 Index at 0.01% with a remaining yield of 2.23%, CSI 500 Index at 0.01% with a remaining yield of 1.46%, and CSI 1000 Index at 0.00% with a remaining yield of 1.16% [5][4] Group 3 - The article tracks the annualized premium/discount of index futures as of April 10, 2025, with the IH main contract at a discount of 24.83%, IF at 26.90%, IC at 28.64%, and IM at 31.22% [1][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of considering dividend impacts when calculating the premium/discount of index futures, as dividends can lead to a natural decline in index points [2][3] Group 4 - The article mentions that the majority of companies are expected to distribute dividends around August, with a detailed forecast of dividend progress for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [17] - The methodology for estimating dividend points is discussed, emphasizing the need for accurate data on constituent stock weights, dividend amounts, and market capitalization [26][30]