增量政策的愿望清单（民生宏观陶川团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition from stabilizing the market to stabilizing the economy, highlighting the need for timely policy implementation to mitigate economic downward pressure and avoid secondary risks [1]. Group 1: Economic Stabilization Strategies - The article suggests that the government has sufficient policy tools to stabilize the economy, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand as a key component of economic recovery [1][4]. - It discusses the importance of "internal circulation" in the context of increasing external uncertainties, indicating that investment in human resources is becoming increasingly significant [1]. - The article outlines two main directions for policy efforts: enhancing existing policies and exploring potential in service consumption sectors, particularly in education, culture, and entertainment [4]. Group 2: Employment and External Risks - The article highlights the critical importance of employment stability, especially in light of U.S.-China trade tensions, which have increased the risks associated with employment in industries with high foreign trade dependence [7]. - It notes that the manufacturing sector has a foreign trade dependence exceeding 13%, indicating that export downturns could exacerbate operational pressures on companies and affect hiring needs [8]. - The article mentions that the government aims to introduce incremental policies to stabilize employment and increase income, with a focus on timely implementation [7][8]. Group 3: Policy Support and Economic Impact - The article estimates that the U.S. tariffs on China could reduce revenue for large industrial enterprises by approximately 1.4 percentage points, with a potential loss of over 2 million jobs in the application sector [8]. - It suggests that the government may increase support for key industries, particularly high-tech manufacturing sectors such as computers, electrical machinery, and automotive [9]. - The potential incremental policies could include measures like re-loans, fiscal subsidies, and tax reductions, with an estimated support of no less than 1.2 trillion yuan for affected industries [11].