Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that local government bond issuance may accelerate in the second quarter of 2025, but the impact on the market is expected to be relatively limited due to monetary policy coordination [2][23][28] - In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance pace of new bonds was slower compared to the same period in 2023, but the progress of replacing hidden debts was faster, with over two-thirds of the 2 trillion yuan quota already issued [2][11] - The second quarter is expected to see a significant increase in the issuance of special bonds, particularly those with a maturity of 10 years or more, driven by growth stabilization demands and policy guidance [2][13][16] Group 2 - Banks remain the main investors in local government bonds, but there has been a noticeable increase in the willingness of broad-based funds to allocate to these bonds since October 2023, with their investment share rising from 5.44% to 8.54% by February 2025 [3][28] - Different types of institutions have varying preferences for bond maturities, with insurance companies favoring long-term bonds (10 years and above), while fund companies have shown a tendency to chase market trends and are now focusing on bonds with maturities of 7 years and above [3][32] Group 3 - Local government bonds currently offer high value for both allocation and trading, with their liquidity being weaker than that of treasury bonds, leading to a lag in market performance [4][38] - The current yield spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds indicates a favorable price-performance ratio, with the spread for 10-year bonds reaching around 30 basis points, suggesting good investment opportunities [5][43][47] - The article recommends focusing on bonds with maturities of 5 years and above, particularly 15-year bonds, which exhibit strong value for allocation [6][43]
【申万固收】地方债,正当时
申万宏源研究·2025-04-10 01:52