【广发宏观陈嘉荔】为何美国3月通胀降温并未利好其资产价格

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the overall cooling of inflation in the U.S. as of March 2025, highlighting a decrease in CPI and core CPI, alongside rising market concerns regarding economic uncertainty and trade tensions, which have led to a risk-off sentiment in the market [1][2][3][4]. Inflation Data Summary - The CPI year-on-year decreased to 2.4% from 2.8%, with a month-on-month change of -0.1% [1][5][6]. - Core CPI year-on-year was 2.8%, down from 3.1%, with a month-on-month change of 0.1% [1][9]. - The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI for March was 3.0%, lower than the previous 3.07% [9]. - The Atlanta Fed's Sticky CPI year-on-year was 3.28%, also down from 3.50% [9]. Market Reactions - The data increased the probability of interest rate cuts, with Bloomberg's implied June rate cut expectation rising to 100% from 81.5% [2][12]. - Following the data release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 9 basis points to 4.43%, while major stock indices experienced declines, with the Nasdaq down 4.3% [2][12]. Risk-Off Sentiment Factors - One reason for the risk-off sentiment is the Federal Reserve's concerns about economic weakness and inflation rebound risks due to tariffs, leading to a cautious decision-making environment [2][13]. - Another factor is the ongoing escalation of trade tensions, with the White House announcing a total tariff of 145% on China, causing the VIX index to rise to 40.7 [3][16]. - Additionally, the recent significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by 47 basis points to 4.46%, has contributed to market unease [4][17]. Fiscal Policy Context - The U.S. House passed a revised budget resolution for FY 2025, allowing for a potential increase in the deficit by up to $5.8 trillion before FY 2034, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [4][18][19]. - The budget resolution includes provisions for significant tax cuts, which could further complicate the fiscal landscape [18][19].