食品饮料行业｜东京酒水图鉴3：复盘日本饮料行业中的成长赛道

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese beverage industry has undergone significant evolution, characterized by diversification and the emergence of various beverage categories over time, leading to a mature market with distinct trends in production, pricing, distribution channels, and consumer preferences [2][5][9]. Chapter 1: Historical Review of the Japanese Beverage Industry Production Side: Diverse Iterative Development - The Japanese beverage industry has experienced three main phases: the initial focus on carbonated and juice drinks (1945-1979), rapid growth of tea and coffee (1980-1999), and a mature phase dominated by tea and mineral water (2000-present) [2][3]. Pricing Side: Rising Average Prices - Average prices across beverage categories have shown an upward trend in recent years, with the overall beverage sales CAGR from 2000-2023 at 1.1%, lagging behind production growth [5][6]. Channel Side: Supermarkets as Leading Retail Channels - Convenience stores and vending machines have significantly contributed to the rapid development of the beverage industry, with supermarkets currently being the largest offline retail channel, accounting for 30% of sales [7][8]. Consumer Side: Trends from Palatability to Health - The industry has evolved from focusing on basic taste (1945-1979) to diverse functionalities (1980-1999), and now emphasizes health consciousness and eco-friendly packaging (2000-2023) [9][10]. Chapter 2: Growth Potential and Analysis of Beverage Segments Carbonated Beverages: Revitalized Growth Category - After a period of stagnation in the 1980s and 1990s, carbonated beverage production has shown a recovery since 2006, with a CAGR of 3.5% from 2006-2018 [11][14]. Juice Beverages: Declining Demand Category - Juice beverages initially benefited from favorable policies but have seen a decline in both market share and production since their peak in the early 1960s [16][17]. Coffee: Steady Growth with High User Loyalty - Coffee beverages have maintained stable production levels since the 2000s, with a CAGR of 0.8% from 2000-2023, reflecting strong consumer loyalty [19][20]. Tea Beverages: Widely Popular and Growing Category - The tea beverage segment has experienced significant growth, particularly in green tea, which accounted for 45% of sales in 2023 [24][27]. Mineral Water: Significant Growth Potential - Mineral water has shown strong growth, with its market share increasing from 6% in 1999 to 21% in 2023, indicating robust demand [28][29]. Sports Drinks: Declining Market Size - After a period of rapid growth in the 1980s and 1990s, the sports drink segment has faced challenges, with market share declining to 6% [31][32]. Chapter 3: Investment Trends in the Chinese Beverage Industry Health Trend: Favorable Outlook for Tea and Bottled Water - The Chinese market for unsweetened tea is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 10.2% from 2022-2027, while bottled water is anticipated to benefit from price reductions [34]. Increasing Industry Concentration - The concentration of leading companies in the Chinese beverage market is expected to rise, with the top three companies holding a market share of 30.5% in 2022 [35]. Enhanced Penetration Rates - The expansion of leading brands in urban areas is likely to drive overall beverage industry growth, with significant sales increases observed in major cities [36]. Unique Development Trend: Plant-Based Beverages - Plant-based beverages are emerging as a growth point in the industry, with a sales growth rate of 32% expected, reflecting a shift towards health-conscious consumer preferences [37].