美股、美元重挫！衰退阴影再现

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline following a brief surge, highlighting the market's sensitivity to policy changes and trade uncertainties, leading investors to reassess their risk exposure [1][5]. Market Performance - On Thursday, the S&P 500 index fell by 3.46% to 5268.05 points, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.31% to 16387.31 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 2.5%, closing at 39593.66 points [1]. - Major tech stocks led the decline, with Tesla down 7.3%, Meta Platforms nearly 7%, Nvidia around 6%, and Apple down 4.2% [1]. Investor Sentiment - Following a brief period of optimism due to a temporary tariff delay, investor sentiment quickly shifted as uncertainties surrounding tariff policies resurfaced [5]. - The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that the proportion of neutral investors fell to 12.5%, the lowest since the 2009 financial crisis, while bearish sentiment remained high at 58.9% [5]. Tariff Policy Impact - Current U.S. tariffs include a 25% tariff on aluminum and automobiles from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on all other imports, with a temporary suspension for some countries [6]. - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist noted that while the delay in tariffs may improve short-term sentiment, it does not reduce overall uncertainty, as current tariff levels remain historically high [6]. Inflation Concerns - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, below the expected 2.6%, while the core CPI rose 2.8%, indicating a second consecutive month of decline [7][8]. - Discrepancies in inflation views between the White House and the Federal Reserve have emerged, with concerns about the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth [9]. Bond Market Signals - The U.S. bond market has shown signs of volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.51% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5.0%, both exceeding market expectations [11]. - Analysts warn that high tariffs could severely impact global economic growth, potentially leading to a recession and increased volatility in U.S. bonds [13]. Global Market Reactions - Following the U.S. market's downturn, Asian markets rebounded significantly, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 9.13% and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 6.6% [14]. - Analysts express mixed views on whether this rebound indicates a buying opportunity, with some cautioning against increasing risk exposure amid ongoing tariff uncertainties [16].