一图复盘黄金历史上的9轮大行情！还能“疯狂”多久？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have reached a historical high of over $3200 per ounce, and analyzes the factors driving this trend, including economic conditions and market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Price Trends - The current gold price increase has been ongoing for 28 months since November 2022, which is notable but not unprecedented in historical terms [1]. - Historically, gold has experienced nine complete bull markets since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, with an average duration of 32 months and an average increase of 172% [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Three key pricing logic factors for gold are identified: 1. Gold does not yield interest, while U.S. Treasury bonds do, leading to lower gold prices when nominal interest rates are high [3]. 2. Gold acts as an inflation hedge, with higher global inflation correlating to higher gold prices [3]. 3. Gold serves as a safe-haven asset, with increased demand when trust in global currencies declines [3]. Group 3: Recent Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in gold prices were influenced by market reactions to U.S. tariffs, which heightened market fear, as indicated by a spike in the VIX index [3]. - The recent rise in gold prices is supported by: 1. Expectations of U.S. economic stagnation or recession, leading to lower U.S. Treasury yields and increased demand for gold [4]. 2. Increased safe-haven buying as market risk appetite declines due to ongoing tariff negotiations [4]. 3. Central banks, particularly in China and other regions, are increasing gold holdings to reduce U.S. Treasury exposure amid concerns over the U.S. dollar's strength and inflation [4].