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哪些资产可以帮助投资者避险?
伍治坚证据主义·2025-04-11 02:57

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of safe-haven assets during times of market volatility, highlighting government bonds, gold, and the US dollar as key options for investors seeking to protect their portfolios from downturns [1][2][6]. Group 1: Government Bonds - Government bonds, particularly from high-credit-rated developed countries like the US, UK, Australia, and Germany, are favored as safe-haven assets due to their reliability and low default risk [2][3]. - In economic downturns, central banks typically lower interest rates, which increases bond prices and provides investors with a protective function [2][3]. - The current yield on US 10-year government bonds is approximately 4.3%, offering decent returns while maintaining their role as a safe asset during market turmoil [3]. Group 2: Gold - Gold is highlighted as another significant safe-haven asset, especially during crises, as it is perceived to resist inflation due to its finite supply [4][5]. - Over the past year, gold prices have increased by around 50%, indicating its appeal during uncertain times [5]. - However, gold's price volatility poses risks, as it can spike during crises but may also decline sharply once the crisis subsides, necessitating careful timing by investors [5]. Group 3: US Dollar - The US dollar is recognized as a classic safe-haven asset, benefiting from its status as the global reserve currency and the depth of the US Treasury market [6][7]. - The "dollar smile" theory explains that the dollar appreciates during both economic downturns and periods of strong US economic performance, making it a reliable asset in various conditions [6][7]. - Concerns about the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset arise from geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in global economic dynamics, which could undermine its reserve currency status [7]. Group 4: Diversification Strategy - The article emphasizes that no single asset can guarantee protection against losses, advocating for a diversified investment approach to mitigate risks and achieve smoother returns [8]. - Investors are encouraged to maintain a long-term perspective and avoid being overly influenced by short-term market fluctuations [9].