晨报｜关税冲击对物价影响几何

Group 1: U.S. CPI and Tariff Impact - The U.S. CPI growth rate in March was lower than expected, indicating a cooling trend, with the impact of tariffs on inflation not yet significant [1] - Despite a 90-day tariff suspension announced by Trump, various tariff measures remain in effect, potentially raising the PCE deflator by approximately 1.2% this year [1] - The market's pricing of "stagnation" is considered adequate, while the pricing of "inflation" may be insufficient, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates up to two times this year [1] Group 2: Price Data and Tariff Effects - In March 2025, the CPI remained weak, aligning with market expectations, while the PPI was slightly below expectations, driven by falling international oil prices and weak domestic construction activity [2] - The additional tariffs on China have reached a rate of 20%, negatively impacting domestic exports and PPI, estimated to contribute a 0.13 percentage point decline in PPI [2] - The anticipated impact of U.S. tariffs on PPI could range from a 1.8% to 3.2% decline, while China's counter-tariffs may raise CPI by about 0.1 percentage points [2] Group 3: Banking and Financial Products - In March 2025, the issuance of bank wealth management products increased, with a total of 2,964 products launched [4] - The average annualized yield for pure debt and non-pure debt fixed-income products rose to 2.35% and 2.10%, respectively, reflecting a recovery from the previous month [4] - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached 29.32 trillion yuan, showing a seasonal decline but supported by improved product yields [4] Group 4: Tariff Policies and Economic Outlook - Trump's tariff policies are compared to historical protectionist measures, with expectations for negotiations on reciprocal tariffs to conclude in mid-2025, although U.S.-China trade talks may take longer [5] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has triggered a global risk-averse capital flow, leading to a significant drop in risk assets and a rally in safe-haven assets [6] - The bond market is expected to perform well, with dividend-paying assets becoming a core safe haven amid tariff-related uncertainties [6] Group 5: Consumer Finance ABS - The growth in consumer loans has led to a significant increase in the issuance of consumer finance ABS in early 2025, with improved asset quality and attractive yield spreads compared to non-financial credit bonds [7] - The focus is on the investment opportunities in consumer finance ABS, particularly in bank-affiliated consumer finance subsidiaries and state-owned enterprise trust products [7]