【招银研究|海外宏观】短暂的平静——美国CPI通胀数据点评（2025年3月）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. CPI inflation data, which fell below market expectations, indicating a potential upcoming "secondary inflation" due to tariff impacts and persistent supply-side pressures [1][4][14]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.4%, while the core CPI fell to 2.8%, both lower than market expectations [1][4]. - Energy prices have sharply declined, significantly contributing to the unexpected drop in inflation, with gasoline prices falling by 6.3% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year [7][10]. - Optional consumption is shrinking, with second-hand car prices dropping by 0.7% month-on-month, marking the first decline since September 2024 [10]. - Despite the decline in certain sectors, supply-side pressures from housing, labor, and food (notably eggs) remain unchanged, suggesting persistent inflationary support [11][14]. Inflation Outlook - The article predicts that U.S. inflation may rebound above 3% by mid-year due to the delayed effects of tariffs [14][16]. - The labor market remains robust, with certain sectors experiencing high inflation despite overall economic weakness, indicating limited room for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [16] . Strategy Recommendations - The article advises caution in going long on long-term U.S. Treasuries and suggests shorting the dollar at higher levels [4][18]. - Current U.S. Treasury yields present some attractiveness for long positions, but market stability should be monitored before entering [18]. - The dollar has seen a significant decline, with the index dropping 1.9% to 100.983, indicating potential opportunities for shorting the currency [17][18].