提振消费政策效应逐渐显现：申万期货早间评论-20250411

Economic Indicators - In March, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with a notable narrowing of the decline; PPI also fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by seasonal and international factors [1][6][7] - Core CPI showed a significant rebound, increasing by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in supply-demand structure and some positive price changes [1][7] Commodity Market - Crude oil prices saw a slight increase, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration lowering global oil demand forecasts; concerns over economic growth due to Trump's tariff policies are rising [2][11] - Gold prices continued to strengthen as U.S. core CPI for March fell to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021, below market expectations, while market uncertainty continues to drive demand for gold [3][19][20] Stock Market - U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, while A-shares showed resilience against tariff pressures, supported by coordinated efforts from various financial authorities to stabilize the market [4][9] - The trading volume in the stock market reached 1.66 trillion yuan, with notable increases in various stock index futures [4][9] International News - The European Commission announced a 90-day suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., while preparations for further measures continue if negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [5] Domestic Policy - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized the commitment to high-level opening-up and support for foreign trade enterprises facing export challenges, including initiatives to boost domestic consumption [8] Financial Market - The bond market showed mixed results, with the yield on 10-year government bonds declining to 1.6475%; the central bank's operations indicated a tightening of liquidity [10] - The market anticipates potential monetary policy adjustments, including possible interest rate cuts, in response to domestic and international economic conditions [10] Agricultural Products - Malaysian palm oil production in March increased by 16.76% month-on-month, with exports rising slightly; however, the overall impact of U.S. tariff policies on agricultural products remains a concern [31][32] Shipping Index - The European shipping index saw a rebound due to improved market sentiment following Trump's tariff policy reversal, with contracts nearing limit-up levels [33]