深度｜​​SemiAnalysis万字长文：揭秘特朗普关税新政将如何撕裂全球半导体供应链，墨西哥或成最大赢家

Core Viewpoint - The construction of AI infrastructure in the U.S. is at a critical scale-driven phase, requiring hundreds of billions in capital investment, but the "Liberation Day" tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration in 2025 casts a shadow over this progress, with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching as high as 145% [2][3]. Macro-Level Analysis - Rising capital costs and tightening financial conditions, including a surge in 10-year interest rates, may lead to a slowdown in AI infrastructure development, necessitating immediate government action to reach agreements with trade partners [5]. - The potential for retaliatory tariffs against large U.S. tech companies exists, but significant short-term impacts on major U.S. enterprises are unlikely due to a service trade surplus driven by tech giants [6]. Tariff Policy Details - The "Liberation Day" tariffs announced by Trump on April 2, 2025, include a 10% base tariff on all goods entering the U.S., with additional tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% on specific countries, particularly targeting China with an initial 34% tariff that escalated to 145% [7][9]. - The overall tariff on Chinese goods will reach 145%, building on a previously implemented 20% tariff [9][10]. Impact on Semiconductor and AI Hardware - GPU servers are largely exempt from tariffs, while the cost of semiconductor manufacturing equipment is expected to rise by 15%, and optical module prices may increase by 25-40% [8][10]. - The U.S. semiconductor industry faces significant challenges due to the new tariffs, which could weaken its competitive position in chip manufacturing [79][86]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Mexico is emerging as a new manufacturing hub under the USMCA framework, providing a buffer for the AI hardware supply chain, with overall data center operational costs expected to increase only slightly by 2% [2][8]. - The current tariff structure allows U.S. companies to import certain goods, including GPUs, from Mexico and Canada at 0% tariffs, creating a significant advantage for U.S. firms [21][22]. Data Center Construction Costs - Data center construction costs are anticipated to rise, but the industry is likely to absorb these impacts, with the total cost of ownership (TCO) for GPU clusters expected to increase by only 2% even if colocation costs rise by 15% [46][50]. - The majority of data center material costs are derived from cooling and electrical equipment, which are heavily reliant on global trade [45][48]. Global Trade Reactions - China has responded to the U.S. tariffs with its own retaliatory measures, raising tariffs on U.S. imports to 84% and escalating tensions between the two nations [24][25]. - The EU has taken a cautious approach, prioritizing negotiations with the U.S. while preparing emergency plans to support affected industries [26]. Future Considerations - The Trump administration's tariff exemptions for certain semiconductor products may not last long, as new targeted tariffs on chips are being considered [23]. - The semiconductor industry is under pressure to adapt to the changing trade landscape, with potential new tariffs on imports looming [79][88].