21世纪经济报道·2025-04-12 13:29Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff policies on the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on the import of integrated circuits into China and the implications of new origin rules for chip manufacturers [2][6]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Chip Imports - In 2024, China's integrated circuit import value reached $38.579 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [2] - The new origin rules state that the origin of integrated circuits will be determined by the location of the wafer fabrication plant, which means chips fabricated outside the U.S. may avoid tariff impacts [2][3] - Major suppliers for domestic smartphone manufacturers include Qualcomm and MediaTek, with their wafer fabs primarily located in Taiwan and South Korea, thus not affected by tariffs [3] Group 2: Effects on U.S. Chip Manufacturers - U.S. companies like Intel, Texas Instruments, and Micron, which have significant manufacturing capabilities in the U.S., are expected to face tariff impacts on their products imported into China [4] - The extent of the impact varies by company; for instance, Intel has a diversified production base, while Texas Instruments is more reliant on U.S. production [4] Group 3: Global Semiconductor Landscape - The top ten global foundries include TSMC, Samsung, and SMIC, with TSMC holding over 60% market share, allowing many chip designers to avoid tariffs by using TSMC for fabrication [5] - The article suggests that the current origin determination method reflects a flexible approach to the ongoing trade conflict, potentially leading to a shift of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing outside the U.S. [5] Group 4: Domestic Semiconductor Industry Developments - China's dependence on U.S. semiconductor imports has decreased from 4.4% in 2019 to 2.4% in 2023, indicating a growing self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain [6] - Recent developments in mature process technologies, particularly in analog chips and MCUs, have shown significant progress, with domestic competitors gaining market share as U.S. firms face tariff challenges [6][7] Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Trends - Following the announcement of the new origin rules, domestic analog chip manufacturers saw significant stock price increases, while Texas Instruments' stock fell by 7.61%, reaching a new low for 2024 [6] - Analysts predict that the tariff situation will benefit domestic manufacturers of mature process products, allowing them to capture a larger market share as U.S. competitors face pricing pressures [7]