A股策略｜美国衰退交易跟踪指南

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a recession in the U.S. has limited impact on Chinese assets, but if it evolves into a recession trade, the scope and intensity of the impact could significantly increase. A tracking system has been established to monitor macroeconomic "soft/hard" data, core operating data of companies, and leading confidence indicators, along with a timeline of key events to help investors understand the current phase [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - Current U.S. economic indicators show strong hard data but weakening soft data, with stable CPI and non-farm employment numbers, while PMI for manufacturing and services has weakened significantly [3]. - As of Q4 2024, 55% of sample companies still show accelerating core operating indicators, but analyst forecasts have begun to decline, with expectations for further downtrends in Q1 and Q2 2025 [3]. Group 2: Earnings and Recession Phases - Historical transitions from recession expectations to actual recession trades are marked by continuous declines in corporate EPS, particularly in high-interest environments [7]. - The recession cycle can be divided into three trading phases: expectation trading, first-round recession trading, and second-round recession trading, with the first phase typically occurring after economic overheating and prior to interest rate hikes [7]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The performance of the financing industry, including investment banks and consumer credit companies, serves as a leading indicator of confidence cycles during recession trades, with significant average declines observed in previous downturns [8]. - Recent earnings data from major companies in various sectors, including investment banking and consumer credit, indicate varying trends, with some companies experiencing significant fluctuations in revenue and operating metrics [5]. Group 4: Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings season for U.S. companies is critical, with a focus on core cyclical companies' operating data and guidance, especially in the investment banking and consumer credit sectors [13]. - Key macroeconomic data and earnings calls from major companies will be closely monitored to assess the potential short-term impacts on Chinese assets and identify long-term investment opportunities [14].