【广发策略】历史单日跌超5%的复盘和波动率收窄后的选股思路

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of past trade tensions, particularly the 2019 US-China trade war, on current market conditions and investment opportunities, suggesting that the current market may be entering a stabilization phase after recent declines [3][36]. Group 1: Market Trends and Historical Context - The recent market sentiment has shifted to a risk-off mode, with significant declines in major indices, reminiscent of historical patterns where single-day drops of over 5% often lead to stabilization or recovery phases [3][4]. - Historical analysis indicates that after significant drops, markets can either enter a prolonged bear phase or stabilize, with the current situation aligning more closely with the latter scenario [4][36]. - The article draws parallels between the current market conditions and the 2019 trade tensions, highlighting that both periods faced unexpected tariff increases and subsequent market adjustments [6][37]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The 2019 trade war presented both absolute and relative investment opportunities, particularly in sectors that demonstrated resilience or growth despite tariff impacts [12][41]. - Key sectors that thrived during the 2019 trade tensions included consumer staples, technology, and industries with low dependency on foreign demand, such as liquor and domestic appliances [16][43]. - The article identifies three main categories of sectors likely to benefit from current market conditions: those with low foreign demand dependency, sectors benefiting from independent technological innovation, and industries focused on domestic substitution [16][55]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Sector Allocation - The article suggests that the current market may begin to reflect increased domestic counter-cyclical measures, technological independence, and potential progress in US-China negotiations [25][61]. - Investment strategies should focus on sectors poised for growth due to domestic demand stimulation, technological advancements, and opportunities arising from international trade dynamics [25][61]. - Specific sectors highlighted for potential investment include consumer services, technology supply chains, and industries involved in international trade initiatives like the Belt and Road [25][61].