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Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes focusing on the constraints faced by Trump rather than speculating on his goals, suggesting that the U.S. economy and bond rates are key variables for predicting the trade war's trajectory [1][3]. Group 1: Trade War and Economic Outlook - The probability of the U.S.-China trade conflict spreading to the financial sector before the midterm elections is low, with expectations for a gradual policy response from China [1][3]. - As of April 9, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a -2.4% actual GDP growth for Q1 2025, with net exports dragging down by 4.73 percentage points [5]. - The proportion of leading U.S. tech and cyclical companies showing accelerating core operating metrics is expected to drop from 55% in Q4 2024 to 33% in Q1 2025 [5]. Group 2: Domestic Policy Responses - The first round of domestic policy responses in April is expected to focus on prevention and experimentation, with a second round of larger-scale policies anticipated mid-year [9]. - Proposed policies may include interest rate cuts, stimulating capital market activity, and enhancing social security measures, reflecting a shift from traditional investment-driven policies [9]. Group 3: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market has likely reached a "chip bottom," supported by institutional buying from entities like Central Huijin, which has alleviated liquidity risks [11]. - Significant net subscriptions in major ETFs indicate a recovery in market confidence, with a notable increase in net subscriptions for various indices [13]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Positioning - Active private equity positions have stabilized at 80.7%, while public funds have seen a slight decrease in redemption rates, indicating a marginal improvement in investor sentiment [15]. - Recent outflows from overseas funds tracking China suggest a cautious approach from foreign investors, with a total net outflow of $15.6 million reported [15]. Group 5: Future Market Dynamics - The article anticipates a trading opportunity in April-May, with a focus on sectors less correlated with earnings per share (EPS), particularly in technology and autonomous sectors [17]. - Long-term investment strategies should consider sectors benefiting from geopolitical uncertainties, such as energy, defense, and technology, as well as the potential for a recovery in the Apple and Nvidia supply chains following recent tariff exemptions [21].