关税战硝烟四起，从达尔文那里回看投资的本质︱重阳书享

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding investment principles in the face of unpredictable events, referred to as "black swan" events, and highlights four key investment mindsets: compound interest thinking, contrarian thinking, risk thinking, and equity thinking [2][3]. Group 1: Compound Interest Thinking - The story of the Manchester peppered moth illustrates how species adapt to environmental changes, emphasizing the power of compound interest over time. For instance, an initial investment of 100,000 yuan at a 20% annual return can grow to approximately 23.74 million yuan over 30 years [6][10]. - The article notes that many investors fail to harness the benefits of compound interest due to a lack of understanding of its gradual accumulation, which can lead to significant wealth over time [9][10]. Group 2: Contrarian Thinking - The life cycle of the periodical cicada, which waits 17 years to emerge and reproduce, serves as a metaphor for the investment strategy of patience and waiting for the right opportunities, contrasting with the impulsive nature of many investors [11][14]. - Successful investors often adopt a "sit and wait" approach, as exemplified by notable figures like Buffett and Munger, who emphasize the importance of long-term holding rather than frequent trading [13][15]. Group 3: Risk Thinking - The behavior of male deer during mating season illustrates the concept of minimizing risks in competition. They engage in ritualistic displays to avoid serious injury, reflecting the need to balance competitive actions with self-preservation [17][21]. - The article categorizes investment errors into two types: Type I errors (taking unnecessary risks) and Type II errors (being overly cautious). It suggests that successful investors prefer to avoid Type I errors, even if it means missing out on some opportunities [22][23]. Group 4: Equity Thinking - The green frog and the fiddler crab demonstrate the concept of signaling in the animal kingdom, where individuals may present misleading signals to gain advantages. This parallels the investment world, where discerning genuine signals from noise is crucial [25][29]. - The article stresses the importance of historical performance data as a reliable indicator of a company's potential, aligning with value investing principles that prioritize long-term fundamentals over speculative signals [30][31].