彭博中国固收指数月报 | 2025年结束前美联储有望降息五次？

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market [1] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a return of -0.26% in March, following a -0.69% return in the previous month, with a year-to-date return of -0.66% [3][5] - The 30-day volatility of the index has been on the rise during this period [3] Index Performance - The China Treasury and Policy Banks Index recorded a return of -0.27% in March, with a year-to-date return of -0.74% [3][5] - The performance of various maturity indices shows mixed results, with the 1-3 Year Index at -0.24% year-to-date and the 10+ Year Index at -1.40% [5] - The China USD Credit (Kungfu) Index has shown a positive year-to-date return of 2.84%, indicating strong performance in the offshore market [5] Market Trends - Despite inflation effects from tariffs, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates five times by the end of the year, indicating a shift in focus towards market stability and unemployment rates [12] - Onshore high liquidity indices and dim sum bond indices have significantly lower yields compared to offshore indices, suggesting cost-saving opportunities for companies refinancing their dollar debts [12] - In February, the Chinese bond market saw an inflow of 69.8 billion RMB across all bond types, reflecting positive investor sentiment [12]