印度替代“中国制造”的故事，又开始讲了

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights India's emerging position as a safe haven for investors amidst escalating US-China trade tensions, with a focus on its resilient economy and potential for growth in manufacturing and exports [1][2][6]. Group 1: Economic Resilience - India's large domestic demand-driven economy is seen as more resilient to global economic downturns compared to many other countries [2]. - The Indian economy is expected to achieve over 6% growth, supported by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) accommodative monetary policy and liquidity injections [12]. - Local investors have significantly supported the Indian market, with approximately $25 billion invested by domestic institutional investors this year [10][11]. Group 2: Trade and Manufacturing Opportunities - The trade war is positioning India as a potential alternative manufacturing hub to China, with smartphone shipments expected to grow by 54% year-on-year by the fiscal year ending March 2025 [5]. - India's exports to the US are relatively low, accounting for only 2.7% of total US imports, which mitigates the impact of US tariffs [7]. - The Indian government's proactive approach in seeking a temporary trade agreement with the Trump administration may further enhance its trade position [2][9]. Group 3: Market Performance and Investment Sentiment - The MSCI index tracking Indian stocks has only declined by less than 3% since the US imposed new tariffs, outperforming other Asian markets [1]. - Despite some sectors, like software and pharmaceuticals, facing challenges due to trade tensions, the overall market outlook remains robust, with a future P/E ratio of 20 for the MSCI India index compared to 13 for the broader Asian index [11]. - Analysts are optimistic about corporate earnings growth entering double digits this year, indicating a potential market rebound [2][11].