24潮·2025-04-13 22:34Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining giants Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are facing significant challenges due to a cyclical downturn, resulting in substantial revenue declines and record losses in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Tianqi Lithium's revenue has decreased for six consecutive quarters, with a revenue drop exceeding 50% for the last five quarters, leading to a record loss of 7.905 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 208.32% [1][4]. - Ganfeng Lithium has also seen a decline in revenue for seven consecutive quarters, reporting a loss of 2.074 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 141.93%, marking its first recorded loss since 2007 [1][4]. - In 2024, Tianqi Lithium's total revenue was 13.063 billion yuan, down 67.75% year-on-year, while Ganfeng Lithium's revenue was 18.906 billion yuan, down 42.66% year-on-year [4][5]. Group 2: International Operations - Both companies experienced significant declines in overseas revenue in 2024, with Tianqi Lithium's overseas income dropping by 81.13% and Ganfeng Lithium's by 63.68% [2][5]. - The overseas business gross margin for Tianqi Lithium was 41.44%, down 42.45% year-on-year, while Ganfeng Lithium's was 8.41%, down 10.89% year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Investment and Capacity - Ganfeng Lithium has invested heavily in lithium battery manufacturing, achieving a near-integrated lithium supply chain, while Tianqi Lithium has focused on upstream lithium resource development [1][2]. - Ganfeng Lithium's planned capacity for lithium carbonate is 244,200 tons, while Tianqi Lithium's capacity is not specified [5]. - Ganfeng Lithium's cash flow from operations was 5.161 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3,434.93%, while Tianqi Lithium's was 5.554 billion yuan, down 75.52% year-on-year [5][6]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The global lithium market is experiencing a fundamental shift, with expectations of oversupply leading to a bearish trend in lithium prices, which fell by 32% in 2024 [7][8]. - Despite some production cuts announced by lithium projects, the overall supply is expected to remain high, with a projected price range of 60,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton in 2025 [8]. - The lithium battery industry is facing severe overcapacity, with planned production exceeding demand forecasts, indicating a potential mismatch in the market [9][10].