机构研究周报：红利或成核心避风港，美债正失去“避险光环”

Group 1: Market Insights - The defensive dividend assets in the stock market may become a core safe haven for funds amid the "tariff storm" [3] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds is weakening as the Trump administration proposes to replace short-term bonds with 100-year zero-coupon bonds [3][18] Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - Under the current tariff situation, risk assets are experiencing significant declines, while safe-haven assets are gaining, with the domestic 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.6% [3] - Chinese assets are expected to show resilience compared to global markets in the short term, with opportunities outweighing risks if policy responses are appropriate [4] - The consumer and investment sectors are expected to benefit from domestic demand policies, presenting short-term trading opportunities [4] Group 3: Sector Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors have seen a rise of 3.18% due to increased domestic prices following U.S. tariffs on agricultural imports [10] - The power equipment and new energy sectors are underperforming due to concerns over profit impacts from trade conflicts [10] Group 4: Macro and Fixed Income - The monetary policy is expected to continue pushing nominal interest rates down, with potential acceleration in easing measures in the second quarter [16] - The domestic bond market is viewed positively, with expectations of further declines in bond yields as the economic impact of tariffs unfolds [16] Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategies - A neutral to defensive allocation strategy is recommended, emphasizing the importance of safe-haven assets like bonds and gold [20] - The A-share market should consider a combination of dividend/value and technology stocks in a barbell strategy, while being cautious of sectors with high overseas revenue exposure [20]