研客专栏 | 天然橡胶调研纪要：上游如何看待今年云南产量与未来产能格局变化？

Core Viewpoints - The expected increase in Yunnan's natural rubber production by 2025, with recent risks of raw material price declines [3][4] - Concentration of concentrated latex processing plant capacities leading to significant price differences across regions [3][4] - Increased capacity layout of concentrated latex processing plants may intensify raw material competition in the future [3][5] - Low-cost regions like Myanmar and Laos are expected to increase natural rubber supply due to tariff reductions and capacity layouts [3][7] Group 1: Production and Pricing Outlook - Yunnan's total latex production is estimated to be between 170,000 to 180,000 tons in 2024, with concentrated latex production at 60,000 to 70,000 tons [4] - The overall weather conditions and tapping times are expected to be better than last year, leading to increased raw material production [4] - Raw material prices are currently under downward pressure, with procurement prices for latex ranging from 13,300 to 14,200 CNY per ton [19][31] Group 2: Capacity and Competition - By April 2025, new concentrated latex processing plants are expected to add 82,000 tons of capacity, primarily in Jinghong [5] - The concentration of processing plants in specific areas, such as Mengla, has led to higher procurement prices for latex in those regions [4] - The competition for raw materials is expected to intensify as more processing plants come online, particularly in Jinghong [5] Group 3: Regional Supply Dynamics - The natural rubber supply from Laos and Myanmar is projected to increase significantly, with imports from Laos rising by 106% and from Myanmar by 371% in early 2025 [7] - The tariff reductions effective from December 2024 are anticipated to further boost imports of natural rubber [7] - The raw material price is closely linked to futures prices, with a noted lag in the impact of low raw material prices on production levels [7] Group 4: Industry Structure and Trends - Yunnan's natural rubber industry is a crucial sector, with the province accounting for 62% of China's total production [8][10] - The area under rubber cultivation in Yunnan is approximately 563,000 hectares, with a significant portion managed by private enterprises [10] - The processing capacity in Yunnan includes major players like Yunji Group and Haijiao Group, with a total capacity of around 500,000 tons [11]