【广发策略刘晨明&许向真】港股创新药风口渐近——港股创新药基本面、估值、流动性一览

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in Hong Kong's innovative pharmaceuticals, highlighting the sector's competitive advantages and favorable market conditions amid changing geopolitical dynamics and regulatory environments [2][7]. Group 1: Competitive Advantages of Chinese Innovative Pharmaceuticals - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are increasingly demonstrating global competitiveness in innovative drug development, particularly through License-out transactions, which have seen significant growth from approximately $11 billion in 2020 to over $51 billion in 2024 [7][8]. - The emergence of the NewCo model allows original drug companies to address challenges such as financing difficulties and high R&D risks by forming joint ventures with investors, enhancing their ability to monetize innovations [8][11]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - Current tariff policies have a minimal impact on innovative pharmaceuticals compared to other growth sectors, as the License-out model primarily involves intellectual property transactions that are not subject to tariffs [11][12]. - The innovative drug sector is expected to benefit from a correction in market mispricing, as it has been less affected by recent market volatility compared to other sectors [11][12]. Group 3: Favorable Policy and Regulatory Environment - Recent policy shifts indicate a more supportive regulatory environment for innovative drugs, including optimization of centralized procurement rules and increased support for innovative drug development in government reports [12][13]. - The introduction of new drugs into the medical insurance catalog and local government initiatives to support the biopharmaceutical industry further enhance the sector's growth prospects [13][14]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - Leading Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical companies are experiencing steady revenue and profit growth due to increased License-out activities, with significant revenue growth rates reported for several companies [14][15]. - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation remains relatively safe compared to other growth industries, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 27.1, placing it in a favorable percentile range historically [16][17]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Trading Activity - Despite improvements in trading conditions in the Hong Kong market, the pharmaceutical sector has not garnered significant attention, with trading volumes remaining low compared to other sectors [18]. - Southbound capital has shifted focus from dividend-paying stocks to growth sectors, indicating a potential for increased investment in pharmaceuticals as market conditions stabilize [18].