【国信电子胡剑团队|半导体4月投资策略】中美互加关税，看好模拟芯片国产替代提速

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the impact of the US-China tariff escalation on the semiconductor industry, highlighting the acceleration of domestic substitution in analog chips as a key investment opportunity [3]. Group 1: Market Overview - In March 2025, the SW semiconductor index fell by 5.70%, underperforming the electronic sector by 1.33 percentage points and the CSI 300 index by 5.63 percentage points [9]. - The SW semiconductor index's PE (TTM) was 92.69x as of March 31, 2025, placing it at the 72.16 percentile since 2019 [14]. - The semiconductor sub-sectors showed varied performance, with discrete devices (-3.73%), analog chip design (-5.01%), and digital chip design (-5.29%) leading the declines [9]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article maintains an "outperform" rating for the semiconductor sector, suggesting a focus on analog chip domestic substitution due to tariff impacts [3]. - The 4024 fund's semiconductor holdings increased to 11.4%, up by 2.8 percentage points, significantly overweighing the semiconductor market's 4.55% share [4][18]. Group 3: Industry Data Update - Global semiconductor sales reached $54.92 billion in February 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, although the growth rate has been declining for five consecutive months [5][24]. - The sales figures for China in February were $15.06 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [5][24]. - The article notes a positive trend in memory prices, with NAND Flash contract prices rising and DRAM prices stabilizing [27]. Group 4: Monthly Revenue Data - In February, the Taiwanese semiconductor sector reported revenue growth across IC manufacturing, design, and packaging, with DRAM chip revenue decreasing year-on-year but increasing quarter-on-quarter [32]. - The revenue for IC design was NT$93.5 billion (YoY +23%), IC manufacturing was NT$294.1 billion (YoY +37%), and IC packaging was NT$62.8 billion (YoY +50%) [32].