晨报｜贸易战应对10问

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on the constraints faced by Trump rather than speculating on his intentions, suggesting that the U.S. economy and U.S. Treasury rates are key variables for predicting the trajectory of the trade war [1] - It is anticipated that conflicts in the U.S.-China economic and trade sectors will not fully extend into the financial realm before the midterm elections in the U.S. [1] - The article suggests that the A-share market has reached a "chip bottom" in the short term, with a potential focus on technology-themed trading opportunities in April and May [1] Group 1: Trade War and Market Response - The article outlines ten key questions regarding how investors should respond to the escalating U.S.-China trade war, covering its evolution, overseas economies, domestic policies, market trends, and industry allocations [1] - It is expected that domestic policy responses will focus on prevention and pilot programs in April, with a larger scale of policy measures anticipated by mid-year [1] - The article predicts a significant style shift in the market by the third quarter, favoring core assets in consumption, advanced manufacturing, and cyclical sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Themes - The article identifies four major themes for investment focus: AI+ theme, tax-exempt and agricultural themes benefiting from domestic circulation and tariff countermeasures, the North Exchange theme, and the semiconductor self-sufficiency theme [2] - It highlights that external disturbances are beginning to ease, and the peak impact of tariffs has passed, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [2] - The article suggests that investors should concentrate on sectors with strong performance certainty or order certainty, particularly those with relatively low valuation levels [2] Group 3: Financial Data and Economic Outlook - The article notes a slight recovery in social financing growth in March, driven by accelerated government bond issuance and restored credit demand [6] - It mentions that while short-term corporate loans have increased, medium to long-term loans remain under pressure due to debt replacement effects [6] - The article anticipates continued collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies to support the expansion of social financing [6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The article discusses the potential for the semiconductor sector to benefit from tariff adjustments based on the manufacturing location of chips, particularly for domestic analog chip companies [11] - It emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in the context of the U.S.-China trade war, suggesting a focus on low domestic production rates and local wafer manufacturing [11] - The article also highlights the expected acceleration in the military electronics sector due to order recovery and the push for self-sufficiency amid tariff impacts [9]