中信证券研究·2025-04-14 00:10Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slight recovery in social financing growth in March 2025, driven by accelerated government bond issuance and improved credit demand, while highlighting the challenges posed by rising interest rates on corporate bond financing [1][2]. Social Financing - In March 2025, social financing growth reached 8.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from February, supported primarily by government bond issuance and improved credit demand [2]. - The net financing amount of government bonds in March was 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 trillion yuan, with special bonds and refinancing bonds contributing significantly to this growth [2][3]. - New RMB loans under social financing amounted to 3.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 535.8 billion yuan, marking it as the second major support for social financing growth [2]. Corporate Financing - In March, new corporate bond financing decreased by 905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 514.2 billion yuan, ending a four-month streak of positive growth [3]. - The average yields on AAA corporate bonds for 1-year, 3-year, and 10-year maturities increased significantly, which may lead to a decline in corporate bond issuance as companies may shift towards loan financing [3]. Stock and Non-standard Financing - New stock financing in March was 41.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6 billion yuan, although the pace of IPOs and refinancing remains slow [4]. - New bank acceptance bills amounted to 363.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase, while trust loans and entrusted loans recorded negative growth [4]. Credit Market - Total new RMB loans in March reached 3.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in credit issuance [5]. - Short-term loans for enterprises increased significantly, while medium and long-term loans faced pressure from government debt replacement [6]. - Residential loans improved due to a rebound in the real estate market and concentrated consumer loan issuance at the end of March [6]. Deposits - M1 growth rate rebounded to 1.6% year-on-year, reflecting improved consumer and investment sentiment, while M2 growth remained stable at 7% [7]. - High savings rates continue to suppress liquidity efficiency, despite an increase in both resident and corporate deposits [7].