【招银研究】关税冲击暂缓，市场波动延续——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.04.14-04.18）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing "stagflation" pressure in the US economy, highlighting the divergence between consumer and corporate sectors, and the implications of tariff policies on economic performance and market dynamics [2][3]. Economic Conditions - The US economy is experiencing heightened "stagflation" pressures, with consumer confidence low and inflation expectations high, as indicated by the University of Michigan's consumer survey [2]. - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a Q1 consumption growth rate of only 0.7%, while corporate investment growth is forecasted at 8.9%, driven by strong equipment investment [2]. - The service sector's PMI fell to 50.8, nearing the contraction threshold, while the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, indicating a contraction [2]. Tariff Impact - Recent fluctuations in US tariff policies have led to significant market volatility, with a shift in trading logic from recession fears to capital flight from dollar assets [3]. - The US government announced a temporary exemption on tariffs for certain technology products, which could alleviate effective tariffs on about 25% of China's exports to the US [8]. - The article notes that the "export rush" effect has diminished, with a decline in container throughput at major ports [8]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate suggests a reluctance to quickly lower interest rates, with officials expressing concerns over inflation driven by tariffs [2]. - The article anticipates that the Fed's intervention to address liquidity issues may be less likely than in the past, leading to a potential upward trend in interest rates [3]. Domestic Economic Response - China's economy is facing challenges from both internal and external factors, with a weak real estate market and declining retail sales due to tariff impacts [7]. - The government is expected to accelerate the issuance of special bonds to support economic growth and mitigate the effects of external shocks [9]. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to present more opportunities than risks, with a potential decline in interest rates, while the A-share market is likely to remain volatile [12]. - The article suggests a balanced allocation in A-shares, focusing on technology, consumption, and dividend stocks, while also noting the potential for defensive positioning in the Hong Kong market [14].