社融增速回升，关注关税进展：申万期货早间评论-20250414

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rebound in social financing growth and the importance of monitoring tariff developments, particularly in relation to the U.S. trade policies and their impact on various sectors [1][2][3]. Financial Sector - In the stock index, the electronic sector led the gains following Trump's exemption of electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs," with total market turnover reaching 1.39 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.756 billion yuan to 1.802312 trillion yuan [2][8]. - The A-share market has shown resilience against downward pressure from tariffs, with implied volatility significantly decreasing, indicating improved market confidence [2][8]. Energy Sector - In the oil market, the SC futures rose by 1.59%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration downgraded global oil demand forecasts, while Trump announced a staggering 145% tariff on the second-largest economy and largest oil importer [3][10]. - The Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 was significantly reduced to $67.87 per barrel from a previous estimate of $74.22 [3][10]. Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to strengthen, reaching historical highs due to escalating trade tensions and market uncertainties. The market anticipates potential quantitative easing and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4][18]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and inflationary pressures has further propelled gold's strong performance [4][18]. Agricultural Products - In the agricultural sector, the U.S. temporarily suspended tariffs on certain countries, leading to a rebound in soybean prices. The USDA report did not adjust key figures for U.S. soybean production, but raised the crushing data to 2.42 billion bushels [29][30]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index experienced fluctuations, with the SCFI for the European line showing a slight increase. However, the overall demand for container shipping is expected to decline due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [31].