见证历史！比美股崩溃更可怕的事情即将发生？丨智氪

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, attributing it to various factors including market liquidity tightening, significant positions in basis trading by hedge funds, and concerns over a potential technical default due to a large volume of maturing debt this year [3][4][16]. Group 1: Reasons for Rising Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by over 60 basis points in a week, which is atypical given the simultaneous decline in equities and the dollar [6]. - The market's reaction to tariff issues has led to a spike in the VIX index, indicating heightened investor anxiety and a lack of adequate risk absorption [6][8]. - A tightening of market liquidity is evident, as shown by various liquidity indicators, although it has not reached the crisis levels seen in 2020 [8][9]. Group 2: Basis Trading and Its Impact - A significant factor in the rise of Treasury yields is the large-scale unwinding of basis trading positions, primarily by hedge funds, which are major marginal holders of Treasuries [9]. - The high leverage characteristic of basis trading means that increased market volatility can lead to forced liquidations, exacerbating the downward pressure on asset prices [9]. Group 3: Weakening Safe-Haven Status of Treasuries - The traditional safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is diminishing, as evidenced by their performance amid recent market turmoil [11][13]. - The long-standing inversion of the China-U.S. interest rate differential reflects a shift in the global economic landscape, reducing the correlation between Chinese and U.S. bonds [13]. Group 4: Concerns Over Technical Default - There are fears of a technical default on U.S. debt due to over $7 trillion in Treasuries maturing this year, which could strain the government's ability to refinance [16][20]. - The potential for a technical default is heightened by the current economic climate and the government's debt restructuring proposals, which may not be well-received by major creditors like China and Japan [20][21].