从0到1，如何构建“永久投资组合”？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the Permanent Portfolio strategy, which aims to mitigate risks and achieve long-term growth by diversifying across four asset classes: stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, each allocated 25% [3][5][9]. Group 1: Permanent Portfolio Strategy - The Permanent Portfolio consists of four asset classes: stocks (25%), gold (25%), cash (25%), and bonds (25%), designed to respond to different economic cycles [9][10]. - The strategy is not about maximizing returns but about avoiding significant losses and controlling volatility, adhering to the principle of "staying the course" through economic fluctuations [11][12]. - The portfolio is built without market timing, with an initial allocation made at the inception of the strategy, and adjustments are made only when asset allocations deviate significantly from the target [12][14]. Group 2: Historical Performance - Historical data shows that from 1971 to 2011, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 9.5%, slightly below that of stocks but with much lower volatility [21][22]. - A more recent analysis from January 2008 to March 2025 indicates that the Permanent Portfolio had a long-term annualized return of 6.2%, compared to 10.13% for the S&P 500 ETF, with a significantly lower maximum drawdown of -15.92% [25][26][29]. Group 3: Application in A-shares - The article discusses the feasibility of applying the Permanent Portfolio strategy in the A-share market, suggesting suitable ETFs for each asset class, including the CSI 300 ETF and 10-year government bond ETF [31][32]. - A backtest from August 2017 to the present shows that the A-share Permanent Portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 56.9%, with an annualized return of approximately 6.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [35][36]. Group 4: Portfolio Optimization - Recommendations for optimizing the portfolio include diversifying stock holdings with low-fee index funds, considering a mix of 10-year and 30-year bonds, and selecting lower-fee gold products or a portion of physical gold [38][39].