信号！公募基金挖掘“烟蒂股”，选股不看胜率看赔率？

Core Viewpoint - In an increasingly uncertain market, "cigarette butt stocks" with cash flow advantages are becoming favored by fund managers [1][3][11]. Group 1: Characteristics of "Cigarette Butt Stocks" - "Cigarette butt stocks" are not considered inferior assets; they are favored when investors' risk appetite decreases and the pursuit of safety margins becomes dominant [3][14]. - These stocks typically exhibit high potential returns (odds) compared to their certainty (win rate), as they are often undervalued due to market overreactions to short-term risks [7][12]. - Key characteristics include stable operating capabilities, healthy cash flow, and significant undervaluation relative to intrinsic value [13][14]. Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on "cigarette butt stocks" as a strategy to mitigate net asset value risks, with a trend towards identifying stocks with substantial price declines and low fund holdings [5][6]. - Notable examples include stocks like Boan Biotech and Mingyuan Cloud, which have seen significant price drops yet are being targeted by specific funds for their potential recovery [5][6][10]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of cash flow and the hidden value of these stocks, leading to a re-evaluation of their worth in the market [8][11]. Group 3: Market Trends and Observations - The phenomenon of "cigarette butt stocks" is particularly evident in sectors that have experienced severe price declines, such as internet and consumer sectors, where companies like Yaoshi Bang have seen significant cash reserves despite low market valuations [9][14]. - Fund managers are shifting their focus from traditional pharmaceutical stocks to digital healthcare service companies that also exhibit characteristics of "cigarette butt stocks," indicating a broader trend in investment strategies [9][11]. - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards identifying undervalued stocks with solid cash flow, especially as the market navigates through periods of uncertainty [12][15].