为何我一直看好黄金

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that gold is a more reliable long-term investment compared to the US dollar, especially in the context of global monetary expansion and economic instability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - Many countries have adopted similar strategies to address economic downturns, primarily through fiscal debt issuance and central bank bond purchases, leading to monetary expansion [3][4]. - The US Federal Reserve holds over 60% of its total assets in US Treasury bonds, while Japan's central bank holds an even larger proportion, indicating significant reliance on debt to manage economic imbalances [4]. - The general trend of currency depreciation against the US dollar has been observed, with emerging market currencies depreciating over 90% since the Bretton Woods system ended [7][10]. Group 2: Gold as an Investment - Gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with increasing demand for gold as a natural monetary asset due to concerns over paper currency inflation [10][18]. - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves significantly, with China's reserves rising from 2,235.40 tons at the beginning of 2024 to 2,279.57 tons by the end of the year, reflecting a trend of accumulating gold as a safeguard against economic uncertainty [19][20]. - The price of gold has shown a strong upward trend, with a notable increase of nearly 30% in just four months, driven by fears regarding the stability of the US dollar and rising debt levels [22][23]. Group 3: Comparison with Bitcoin - Bitcoin is characterized by extreme volatility, making it less stable as a currency compared to gold, which has maintained its monetary properties for over three millennia [12][13]. - The historical performance of gold shows significant long-term appreciation, contrasting with Bitcoin's erratic price movements, which raises questions about its viability as a stable currency [12][23]. Group 4: Global Economic Trends - The article highlights a trend of low growth and high volatility in the global economy, suggesting that gold is an appropriate investment during such turbulent times [17][18]. - The increasing structural issues in the global economy, including wealth disparity and economic imbalances, are likely to exacerbate risks, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [18][23].