关税战震动全球金融市场 美国股债汇信用遭损耗

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is still experiencing the "aftershocks" caused by the U.S. imposition of tariffs, leading to increased volatility and uncertainty in both U.S. and global markets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On April 21, U.S. stock indices fell over 2%, with the Dow Jones index dropping more than 8% and the Nasdaq index over 10% in the past 20 days [2]. - The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, with the dollar index briefly falling below 98, while spot gold rose above $3,400 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Foreign investors are becoming cautious about the outlook for U.S. stocks, with many institutions downgrading their expectations for U.S. stock performance amid ongoing trade disputes [3][4]. - Wellington Management noted that the recent sell-off in the stock market is a correction process due to tariff and policy uncertainties, leading to a reassessment of growth expectations [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - There is a rising probability of a recession in the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs predicting near-zero growth and a 45% chance of a full recession within the next 12 months [12]. - The VIX fear index surged from 15.2 to 60.13, indicating heightened market uncertainty [11]. Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - Recent weeks saw a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and a decline in the dollar index, reflecting a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. - The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.5%, marking the highest weekly increase since 2001, while the 30-year yield briefly surpassed 5% [7]. Group 5: Tariff Impact - The imposition of tariffs is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S., with over 80% of surveyed economists believing it will significantly increase inflation [12]. - The unpredictable nature of U.S. tariff policies is damaging investor confidence and increasing volatility in global markets [5][10]. Group 6: Long-term Implications - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies may lead to a restructuring of global supply chains and increased long-term trade and financing costs [12][13]. - The potential for "de-dollarization" is increasing as global trade dynamics shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar [9].