深度 | 特朗普怎样对医药“动刀”？—— “特朗普经济学”系列之十四【陈兴团队·财通宏观】

Core Viewpoint - Trump's new healthcare policy continues the idea of reducing government intervention, with recent expressions of imposing tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry, raising questions about the impact on the global healthcare sector and challenges for Chinese pharmaceutical companies [1][3]. Historical Development of the US Healthcare System - The evolution of the US healthcare system can be divided into four stages, focusing on the dual goals of expanding coverage and controlling costs: 1. Emphasis on drug regulation and insurance expansion [5]. 2. Reform of payment methods and increased regulatory flexibility [6]. 3. Strengthened cost control and comprehensive regulation [7]. 4. Promotion of insurance expansion and regulatory informatization [7][14]. Comparison of Healthcare Policies Under Trump and Biden - Trump's administration focused on reducing government intervention, while Biden's administration aimed to strengthen government involvement in healthcare [19][22]. - During Trump's term, healthcare insurance spending remained stable, while Biden's term saw a gradual increase in the proportion of insurance spending [25]. - Employment in the healthcare sector improved under Biden, attributed to the expansion of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and increased healthcare investment [25]. Future Direction of the US Pharmaceutical Industry - Trump's new term is expected to continue reducing government intervention and promote the return of pharmaceutical manufacturing to the US, impacting the global pharmaceutical landscape [33]. - Domestic implications include potential reductions in insurance coverage and increased out-of-pocket costs for patients, which may lead to decreased pharmaceutical consumption in the short term [33][35]. - Regulatory relaxation may benefit US biotech and generic drug companies, while tariffs on pharmaceutical products could significantly affect imports, particularly from China [3][42]. Impact of Tariffs on Chinese Pharmaceutical Industry - Trump's tariffs aim to protect domestic pharmaceutical manufacturers and suppress the development of Chinese companies, with significant implications for Chinese pharmaceutical exports to the US and Europe [3][45]. - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry primarily exports to the US and Europe, making it vulnerable to tariff increases, especially in the medical device sector [3][45][49]. - The overall export scale of China's pharmaceutical industry is relatively small, with exports to the US and Europe accounting for over 20% [45][46].