研报 | 预估2025年笔电品牌出货成长率将下修至1.4%

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the temporary suspension of tariffs on laptop brands in the U.S. market, highlighting both opportunities and uncertainties in the supply chain and market demand for 2024 and 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Despite a 90-day tariff suspension providing temporary relief, the overall market remains affected by uncertainties, leading brands to increase inventory ahead of 2024, with expected shipment growth rates of 5.1% in Q4 2024 and 7.2% in Q1 2025 [1]. - However, due to changing international circumstances, the forecast for 2025's annual shipment growth rate has been revised down from 3.6% to 1.4% [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. maintains a 0% tariff on laptops imported from Southeast Asia, prompting brands to expedite shipments from countries like Vietnam and Thailand [1]. - U.S. brands have proactively established production capabilities in Southeast Asia, allowing for greater flexibility in inventory replenishment during the tariff exemption period [1]. - In contrast, non-U.S. brands face limitations in adjusting their supply chains due to the incomplete establishment of Southeast Asian production [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If tariff negotiations fail, there is a risk that annual shipment growth could turn negative, with potential declines in demand due to expected price increases [2]. - The U.S. accounts for approximately 30% of global laptop demand, making the outcome of tariff negotiations critical for market stability [2]. - If tariffs on Southeast Asia are set between 10% and 20%, it may alleviate cost pressures for manufacturers and stabilize market confidence [2].