2025年笔电品牌出货成长率或将下修至1.4%

Core Viewpoint - The overall laptop market is facing uncertainty despite a temporary 90-day tariff delay by the U.S., with expected shipment growth rates being revised downwards for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The laptop brands are expected to increase their inventory levels starting from the end of 2024, leading to a year-on-year shipment growth rate of 5.1% in Q4 2024 and 7.2% in Q1 2025 [1]. - However, due to changing international circumstances, the overall shipment growth rate for laptop brands in 2025 is revised down from 3.6% to 1.4% [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Tariff Implications - The U.S. maintains a 0% tariff on laptops imported from Southeast Asia, allowing brands to expedite shipments from countries like Vietnam and Thailand to the U.S. market [1]. - U.S. brands have been proactive in establishing production capacity in Southeast Asia, providing them with greater flexibility to replenish inventory in North America during the 90-day tariff exemption period [1]. - Non-U.S. brands face limitations in adjusting their supply chains in the short term due to the incomplete establishment of Southeast Asian supply chains [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If tariff negotiations fail, there is a high likelihood of increased terminal prices, which may suppress consumer and commercial replacement demand [2]. - Brands are closely monitoring the tariff negotiations, as a potential tariff rate of 10% to 20% on Southeast Asian imports could alleviate cost pressures and stabilize market confidence [2]. - If negotiations do not reach a consensus, a price increase in laptops and weak demand could lead to a year-on-year shipment decline of -2.1% in the latter half of 2025 [2].