Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in land transfer revenue for local governments in China, primarily due to the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, with a potential recovery expected in 2025 as the market shows signs of warming up [1][20]. Group 1: Land Transfer Revenue Trends - Local government land transfer revenue has decreased for three consecutive years, with 2024 expected to generate 4.87 trillion yuan, a drop of approximately 44% compared to the historical peak in 2021 [1][3]. - Among 27 cities with a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan, nearly 80% experienced a decline in land transfer revenue, with Dongguan seeing a drop of over 50% [1][7]. - Over the past five years, about half of the trillion-yuan cities have seen their land transfer revenue decrease by more than 50%, with Dongguan, Zhengzhou, and Qingdao experiencing declines exceeding 70% [9][10]. Group 2: City-Specific Revenue Analysis - In 2024, at least eight cities surpassed 100 billion yuan in land transfer revenue, including Shanghai, Beijing, and Chongqing, while cities like Nanjing and Chengdu saw declines of over 25% [7][8]. - Dongguan's land transfer revenue in 2024 was notably low, with only three out of five residential land parcels successfully auctioned, reflecting a significant downturn in market activity [8][10]. - Cities like Wuhan and Tianjin have increased their non-tax revenue collection efforts, with Wuhan's non-tax revenue growing by 46.5% due to enhanced management of state-owned assets [19]. Group 3: Market Recovery Indicators - Since March 2024, the national land market has shown signs of recovery, with cities like Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai successfully auctioning high-premium residential land [1][20]. - The increase in land auction prices indicates a renewed optimism among real estate companies regarding the core city markets, driven by improved sales and government support measures [20]. - The shift from scale-driven to quality-driven growth in the real estate sector is expected to lead to a more stable market by 2025, with a focus on improving housing quality and meeting new demand [20].
东莞、郑州、青岛,卖地收入膝斩!
城市财经·2025-04-22 03:45