日本提振内需启示录

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing domestic demand as a key strategy for economic resilience amidst external uncertainties, drawing lessons from Japan's historical experiences in boosting domestic consumption [4]. Group 1: Japan's Domestic Demand Enhancement Plans - The "National Income Doubling Plan" initiated by Prime Minister Ikeda in 1960 aimed to increase production investment and enhance public capital through various means [7][8]. - Between 1961 and 1970, Japan's national income grew at an average annual rate of 11.5%, with per capita consumption expenditure growing at a compound annual growth rate of 9.4% [9][10]. - The plan faced challenges such as inflation, but it highlighted the importance of linking income distribution to domestic demand [10]. Group 2: Real Estate Boom and Its Consequences - The real estate boom in the 1970s initially stimulated domestic demand, with land prices peaking at a year-on-year increase of 30.9% in 1973 [12]. - However, the high real estate prices eventually reduced consumer willingness to spend, leading to a decline in domestic demand contribution from 9.9% to 3.3% [13]. Group 3: The Maekawa Report and Policy Shifts - The Maekawa Report, developed in the late 1970s, aimed to adjust the economic structure towards enhancing domestic demand after the Plaza Accord [15]. - It emphasized reducing working hours to increase consumer time demand, alongside urban redevelopment and housing policies [16]. Group 4: Abenomics and Its Impact - Abenomics, introduced in the early 2010s, focused on aggressive monetary easing, flexible fiscal policies, and structural reforms, with mixed results in boosting domestic demand [25][26]. - The negative interest rate policy and quantitative easing (QQE) aimed to stimulate lending and capital investment but did not effectively translate into increased consumer spending [28][29]. - Abenomics faced criticism for failing to address the underlying issues of low financial asset ownership among Japanese households, which limited the effectiveness of capital market stimulation [28][30]. Group 5: Lessons Learned and Future Directions - Japan's experience suggests that enhancing domestic demand requires a multifaceted approach, including public investment, capital market stimulation, and direct consumer support [32][33]. - The article concludes that successful domestic demand enhancement strategies must consider consumer confidence and income distribution reforms, as well as targeted subsidies [39][40].