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2025年Q1全球三元材料产量同比下滑9.3%
鑫椤锂电·2025-04-22 07:15

Core Viewpoint - The demand for ternary materials in the market continues to diverge, with domestic high-nickel high-voltage orders persisting, while overall overseas demand remains weak [2][4]. Group 1: Production and Market Share - In Q1 2025, China's ternary material production was 140,000 tons, a year-on-year decline of 10.3%, while global production was 212,000 tons, down 9.3%. China's global market share increased from 64.4% in 2024 to 66.1% [2]. - The proportion of 6-series ternary materials in China has further increased, exceeding 30%, while the share of mid-low nickel materials continues to shrink [4]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Cost Impact - The cobalt price experienced significant volatility, with prices rising over 80% in about two weeks due to various policy factors, including the suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the establishment of a strategic alliance with Indonesia. This has notably impacted the cost of ternary materials, especially mid-low nickel types [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - Currently, orders for ternary materials are limited outside of high-nickel high-voltage products, with most changes being adjustments in order distribution among suppliers. In Q1 2025, Nantong Ruixiang emerged as a top player due to strong product shipments, while companies like Rongbai Technology, Tianjin Bamo, and Guangdong Bangpu benefited from overseas high-nickel demand [12]. - The ongoing U.S. tariff war is expected to suppress overseas demand for new energy vehicles in the short term, leading to a downward adjustment in total market expectations. However, domestic orders remain relatively stable, indicating a potential widening gap in demand across different supply chains [14].