【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】磨底期的注意事项

Group 1 - The market is currently in a bottoming phase after a sharp rebound, and further consolidation is expected as the market digests various factors including tariff impacts and potential future disturbances in the financial and technology sectors between China and the US [1][2][3] - The market's response to fundamental pressures has largely been realized, but the time frame for recovery remains insufficient. The market's pessimistic expectations regarding tariffs were overly negative, leading to a significant adjustment on April 7, bringing it back to a long-term high-value area [1][2] - Key factors that need to be digested during the bottoming phase include the gradual emergence of tariff impacts, the potential for further disturbances in US-China relations, and the need for a cohesive market consensus on consumption and technology as the main themes [1][2][3] Group 2 - The fundamental impact of tariffs is beginning to show in Q2, with manageable downward pressure expected, but further pressure is anticipated in Q3. This indicates a growing demand for policy support to stabilize market expectations [2][3] - The market's expectations for stable growth in Q2 will require specific policy conditions, including the need for timely policy adjustments, the effective use of accumulated fiscal resources, and accelerated government bond issuance in May and June [2][3] Group 3 - The market is expected to face increasing downward pressure in Q3, necessitating resource reserves for stabilizing growth. If policy measures align with expectations, overall market sentiment may remain stable; otherwise, combined with fundamental pressures, market adjustment risks could increase [3] - The bottoming phase is characterized by a focus on defensive assets, which may yield absolute and relative returns, while the rebound phase has seen a preference for offensive assets like semiconductors and new consumption [4][5] Group 4 - The mid-term outlook for A-shares suggests a return to an upward trend, likely contingent on the re-establishment of consensus around technology industry trends. Continued recommendations include investments in domestic AI computing and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy [4][5] - The market is expected to see a structural rally in technology, with a focus on AI-related sectors as catalysts for future growth, particularly in internet platforms and foundational AI model breakthroughs [5] Group 5 - The expansion of profit effects across various sectors is evident, with banking and food & beverage sectors showing strong performance, while agriculture and defense sectors are experiencing contraction [8] - The overall market sentiment is reflected in the performance metrics, with a notable focus on sectors like public utilities and real estate, which are continuing to expand despite broader market challenges [8]