油价走弱，金价续涨：申万期货早间评论-20250421

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].