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中信证券研究·2025-04-21 01:03

Core Viewpoint - The market is characterized by a low-risk preference for funds and a continuous high rotation feature, suggesting a balanced allocation based on market conditions. The focus is on domestic circulation and new technology themes, with ongoing policies to stabilize the real estate and stock markets impacting market expectations [1][2]. Market Overview - The A-share market is primarily driven by domestic circulation, with rapid rotation of new technology concepts lacking sustainability. Concerns over tariff risks have led to increased risk aversion among investors. The U.S. maintains a hardline stance on tariffs against China, while China seeks multilateral trade with ASEAN and EU countries [2][3]. Theme Environment 1) Concerns persist regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on the macro economy, with a significant increase in tariffs on certain Chinese goods to 245%, leading to a near halt in exports to the U.S. and heightened global market volatility [3]. 2) President Xi Jinping's recent visits to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia aim to strengthen multilateral trade with ASEAN countries, enhancing cooperation in various sectors, including electric vehicles and agricultural products [4]. 3) The A-share market has seen a decline in trading volume, with the total trading volume dropping to 914.66 billion yuan, the lowest in 2025. Defensive sectors like banking remain strong, while real estate and urbanization concepts have gained traction [5]. Catalytic Factors 1) The State Council is set to hold a press conference focusing on the opening of the service industry, with ongoing stimulus policies aimed at domestic circulation [6]. 2) Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are expected, with the Ministry of Finance planning to inject 100 billion yuan into the market to alleviate liquidity pressure on commercial banks, benefiting small and micro enterprises [6]. Focus Areas - The domestic circulation is anticipated to boost low-positioned domestic demand sectors, with potential reversals in the consumer electronics market. The self-sufficiency trend is expected to benefit the aerospace and military sectors, while industrial transformations may favor the deep-sea economy [7].