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汽车|美国挑起关税纠纷,汽车板块“机”大于“危”
中信证券研究·2025-04-21 01:03

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing significant tariff increases from the U.S., with rates exceeding 200% for electric vehicles and 55%-80% for auto parts, but the overall impact on Chinese brands is limited due to low export exposure to the U.S. market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Automotive Sector - The current tariff rates for the automotive sector in China range from 75% to over 200%, with electric vehicles facing the highest rates [2]. - Chinese automakers exported approximately 110,000 vehicles to the U.S. in 2024, accounting for only 1.7% of total exports, indicating that the U.S. is not a primary market for Chinese brands [3]. - The EU has paused tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and is negotiating new terms, which may benefit high-end models from Chinese brands [3]. Group 2: Auto Parts Sector Analysis - The tariff rates for auto parts exported to the U.S. are currently between 55% and 80%, with direct exports exceeding 44.5 billion RMB in 2024 [4]. - Companies in the auto parts sector have established significant production capacity in Mexico, allowing them to shift U.S. demand to local supply, mitigating the impact of tariffs [4]. - Auto parts suppliers with established Mexican operations are not adversely affected, while others are negotiating cost-sharing with clients and suppliers [4]. Group 3: Two-Wheelers and Non-Road Vehicles - The two-wheeler and non-road vehicle sectors are experiencing short-term challenges due to tariffs, but this may lead to long-term improvements in market structure [5]. - Companies exporting electric bikes and other related vehicles to the U.S. face increased costs due to tariffs, as they lack fully localized production bases in North America [6]. - The market for two-wheelers and low-speed vehicles is expected to see a clearer competitive landscape after initial disruptions [6].