公用环保｜抽水蓄能：电价机制改善刺激投资，抽蓄步入扩张周期

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of renewable energy enhances the demand for peak regulation in the power system, highlighting the cost and lifespan advantages of pumped storage investment. The implementation of a two-part electricity pricing system clarifies the cost recovery model, ensuring reasonable investment returns. The development of the electricity spot market and auxiliary service market is expected to further increase project revenues, making pumped storage power stations attractive to investors [1][19]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Pumped storage is currently the most mature energy storage technology, suitable for large-scale scheduling in the power system, providing peak shaving, frequency regulation, and energy storage functions, which facilitate the consumption of renewable energy [2]. - The historical development of pumped storage in China began in the 1960s, with significant growth in installed capacity during the 1990s and 2000s. However, the installed capacity growth during the "12th" and "13th" Five-Year Plans fell short of national targets due to low reasonable return rates under the previous electricity pricing mechanism [6][7]. Group 2: Development Opportunities - The increasing share of renewable energy in the power system has led to greater peak regulation pressure, while the construction of flexible regulation power sources has lagged. This has renewed attention on pumped storage as a key adjustment power source, with government departments proposing ambitious development targets and project lists [9]. - It is projected that by the end of 2025 and 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage will reach 73 GW and 155 GW, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 18.3% and 16.2% during the "14th" and "15th" Five-Year Plans [9]. Group 3: Investment Returns - The comprehensive implementation of a two-part electricity pricing system ensures that the initial investment and ongoing operational costs of pumped storage power stations can be recovered, providing stable returns for investors. The ongoing development of the electricity spot market and auxiliary service market is expected to enhance revenue through price differentials and participation in auxiliary services [19]. - Simulations indicate that as the additional profit per kWh from the spot market increases, the internal rate of return (IRR) for equity will rise significantly, demonstrating strong return potential [19][21]. Group 4: Industry Landscape - The early limitations in policy and profitability have resulted in the majority of existing pumped storage power stations being operated by State Grid and Southern Grid. Looking ahead, these entities are expected to lead the industry, with ambitious targets for installed capacity by 2030 [25][27]. - The central enterprises are becoming significant players in the pumped storage sector, with approximately 40% of the approved project scale during the "14th" Five-Year Plan, leveraging their financial strength and experience in large-scale power station development [25].