社会服务｜消费政策或向何方？服务业预期升温

Core Viewpoint - Service consumption is a key focus of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with significant growth potential in both supply and demand sides, particularly in the tourism and cultural industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Service Consumption Policies - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have issued a "Service Consumption Quality Improvement Action Plan for 2025," outlining 48 specific measures across various sectors including dining, accommodation, health, and tourism [2] - The government's frequent issuance of work plans to support service consumption has enhanced market expectations for policy support [2] Group 2: Tourism and Cultural Industry - The tourism and cultural industry is characterized by its large capacity, broad scope, high resilience, and strong driving force, making it a significant area for potential subsidies to stimulate consumption [3] - Historical data indicates that tourism consumption subsidies can have a multiplier effect, with ratios ranging from 1:4 to 1:5, and in some cases, as high as 1:12 [3] Group 3: Beneficiary Sectors - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy include platforms, transportation, accommodation, scenic spots, and dining [4][5] - Past consumption voucher distributions show that hotel accommodation typically accounts for 20%-40%, scenic spot tickets for 15%-30%, and transportation for 5%-20% of total subsidies [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - With the government's clear direction to stimulate domestic demand, there is an expectation of continued policy support for service consumption [7] - The upcoming May Day holiday is projected to maintain high passenger traffic growth, with airline ticket prices expected to turn positive, indicating a significant holiday effect [7]