中信证券研究·2025-04-21 01:03Core Viewpoint - The financial indicators and asset quality of the six disclosed banks are generally stable in the first quarter, with a positive outlook for the banking sector driven by increased market volatility and the sector's stable returns and index weight advantages [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Six listed banks have disclosed their Q1 2025 performance, showing overall stability but continued differentiation in earnings. For instance, Minsheng Bank reported a net interest margin improvement and a revenue increase of over 7% year-on-year, while Ping An, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Changshu Bank reported revenue changes of -13.05%, +1.35%, and +10.05% respectively [2]. - The divergence in earnings performance is attributed to the impact of last year's net interest margin decline and the effects of fair value changes in Q1 [2]. Credit Growth - The banks demonstrated strong expansion momentum, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's total loans increasing by 254.58 billion (5.02%) year-on-year, marking a recent quarterly high. Minsheng Bank also reported stable growth in deposits and loans, while Ping An Bank's loans grew by 1.1% [3]. - Overall, the credit growth and expansion are positive, aligning with marginal improvements in social financing growth, with significant focus on real credit issuance and investment in interest-bearing bonds [3]. Asset Quality - Asset quality remains stable, with non-performing loan ratios for Ping An, Chongqing Rural, and Changshu banks remaining flat or slightly improved. The provision coverage ratios for these banks are still at solid levels, indicating a cautious approach to provisioning [4]. - The banks are intensifying efforts to recognize and manage problem assets, particularly in retail lending, with future asset quality changes dependent on the recovery of household balance sheets [4]. Market Performance - The banking sector showed optimistic performance last week, with the A/H bank index rising by 4.23%, outperforming the broader market. Notable gainers included Chongqing Bank (8.8%) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (7.4%) [6]. - The influx of incremental funds into the banking sector is evident, with significant net inflows into stock ETFs and increased holdings by southbound funds in Hong Kong [7]. Investment Outlook - The banking sector is recommended for active allocation due to its defensive attributes and relative value, especially in the context of ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The sector is expected to maintain robust fundamentals compared to most industries [9]. - Specific stock recommendations focus on banks with stable profitability, attractive dividend yields, and potential for valuation recovery [9].